Financial Failure Risk in Istanbul Stock Exchange's Automotive Sector: 2016–2024 Analysis Using Altman Z-Score and Springate S-Score Models
Özet
Türkiye ekonomisinde yüksek katma değer, ihracat ve istihdam kapasitesiyle öne çıkan otomotiv sektörü; sermaye yoğun üretim yapısı, küresel tedarik zincirlerine bağımlılığı ve kur/faiz oynaklığı nedeniyle finansal kırılganlıklara açıktır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Borsa İstanbul’da (BİST) işlem gören otomotiv ve otomotiv yan sanayi şirketlerinin finansal başarısızlık riskini Altman Z-Skor ve Springate S-Skor modelleriyle 2016–2024 dönemi için karşılaştırmalı olarak ölçmek ve sektörel bir risk haritası oluşturmaktır. Örneklem, veri sürekliliği sağlanan sekiz şirketten (TTRAK, TOASO, TMSN, OTKAR, KARSN, FROTO, DOAS, ASUZU) oluşmakta; analizler Kamuyu Aydınlatma Platformu’ndan elde edilen yıllık finansal tablolarla yürütülmektedir. Her firma-yıl için hesaplanan skorlar, şirketlerin risk profillerinde belirgin ayrışmalar bulunduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgular, Ford Otosan, Doğuş Otomotiv ve Türk Traktör’ün iki modele göre de çoğunlukla güvenli bölgede yer alarak sektörün en dirençli çekirdeğini oluşturduğunu göstermektedir. Tofaş, Tümosan ve Otokar gri/orta risk bandında dalgalanmakta ve makroekonomik şoklara daha duyarlı bir profil sergilemektedir. Karsan ve Anadolu Isuzu ise ağırlıklı olarak risk bölgesinde kalarak yapısal kırılganlığı işaret etmektedir. Yöntemsel karşılaştırmada Springate S-Skor daha muhafazakâr sonuçlar üretmiş ve kısa vadeli borç ödeme kapasitesindeki bozulmaları daha erken sinyalize etmiştir. Sonuçlar, sermaye yoğun sektörlerde bilanço odaklı ve operasyonel kârlılık temelli modellerin birlikte kullanılmasının, yöneticiler ve yatırımcılar için daha etkili bir erken uyarı ve izleme mekanizması sunduğunu; likidite, kârlılık ve borç vade yapısına ilişkin proaktif stratejilerin tasarlanmasına katkı sağlayabileceğini göstermektedir. Bu çerçevede sektör içi karşılaştırma ve risk sınıflaması kolaylaşmaktadır.
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