Financial Failure Risk in Istanbul Stock Exchange's Automotive Sector: 2016–2024 Analysis Using Altman Z-Score and Springate S-Score Models
Abstract
The automotive industry is a strategic pillar of the Turkish economy through value added, exports, and employment; yet its capital-intensive structure, dependence on global supply chains, and exposure to exchange-rate and interest-rate volatility make firms’ financial sustainability a critical issue. This study measures and compares the financial distress risk of automotive and automotive manufacturing companies listed on Borsa Istanbul (BIST) over 2016–2024 using the Altman Z-Score and Springate S-Score models, and develops a sectoral risk map. The sample comprises eight firms with continuous data (TTRAK, TOASO, TMSN, OTKAR, KARSN, FROTO, DOAS, ASUZU). Annual financial statements obtained from the Public Disclosure Platform are used to compute firm-year scores and classify companies into risk zones. Results reveal a clear segmentation: Ford Otosan, Doğuş Otomotiv, and Türk Traktör consistently appear in the safe zone in both models, representing the sector’s most resilient core. Tofaş, Tümosan, and Otokar display a fluctuating medium-risk profile and higher sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks, whereas Karsan and Anadolu Isuzu remain predominantly in the distress zone, signalling structural fragility. Methodologically, the Springate model yields more conservative assessments and provides earlier warnings about deterioration in short-term debt-servicing capacity. Overall, the findings suggest that combining balance-sheet-oriented and operating-profitability-oriented score models offers a more informative early-warning framework for managers and investors in capital-intensive industries. This integrated approach supports proactive monitoring, credit decisions, and internal risk governance.
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